Page 82 - Conference Book The 3rd IConVET "Future of TVET Graduates: Developing Talent for Industry 4.0 and The New Normal"

The 3 International Conference
rd
on Vocational Education and Technology (IConVET)
th
Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha - Bali | 7 November, 2020
DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BROWN
METHOD FOR SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM WITH
A LINEAR AND NON-STATIONARY DATA TREND

P A S Dharmawan , and I G A A D Indradewi
2
1
1,2 Study Program of Informatics Engineering, STMIK STIKOM Indonesia,
Denpasar-Bali 80225, Indonesia

angga.suta92@gmail.com , diatri.indradewi@stiki-indonesia.ac.id 2
1
Abstract. UD Parama Store is a trading company engaged in the sale of
retail goods that sell various types of daily necessities retail. Problems that
occur are the difficulty in predicting sales due to the level of maturity of
experience, changes in customer demand, and limited memory of the owner
so that there is a buildup of merchandise stock when there is a decrease in
sales or a shortage of stock when there is an increase in sales. In this research,
a sales forecasting web-based system is designed and built which aims to
assist the owner in predicting the number of sales in the next period so that
decisions can be made in determining the amount of goods to be provided.
Forecasting method used is double exponential smoothing brown that is by
improving forecasting by averaging (smoothing) the past value of a time
coherent data by decreasing (exponential) which requires only one
parameter and is used for data that contains a tendency to increase or
decrease linear and non-stationary data. Based on the calculation of
forecasting accuracy using the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
method in forecasting sales of merchandise, it produces the smallest error
rate ranging from 7.99% to 32.42% for 10 different items.

| IConVET 2020 | 82

https://conference.undiksha.ac.id/iconvet/ | 82 |